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Trump's Real "Stock" Market II

by John Jazwiec

Screen Shot 2017-06-21 at 10.07.41 AM

Trump's real "stock" market support levels are 59%/36% unfavorable/favorable. 

As the reader can see, those support levels have been tested for a week and as I expected the support levels have held. 

Which means Trump is in a recession but nowhere near a depression. His strategy of playing to his base seems to be the right strategy to hold on to office.


Mueller Probable End Game

by John Jazwiec

Before Trump took office, the entire US intelligence community concluded that Russia interfered in the election. 

Of course, ostensively, Mueller is looking for collusion and obstruction of justice. But that isn't likely his end game. 

Donald Trump's financial dealing are a complex set of deals with foreign entities. They are done with LLCs. There is a rather high probability that some have been done with citizens of Russia.

Specifically, Russian oligarchs are well known to park their money into US real estate in NY and Miami. It works like this. Through LLCs they buy expensive condos at premium prices. These premium prices can be thought of as loans.

It is questionable ethics for Trump as a private citizen. But for President Trump - given Russia interference in the election - such financial transactions are highly problematic.

In a less reported, but nonetheless significant move, Trump courted the US Attorney with jurisdiction in NY city. Trump's courting him got Trump nowhere and he fired the US Attorney. 

The press has widely reported Trump's questionable financial transactions, but they have hit dead ends. But Mueller has the legal means to follow the money through the end. 

It maybe likely that this is what Trump is most concerned with. Not collusion or obstruction, but financial dealings - that might not be illegal as a private citizen - but very damaging as the president of the United States under the veil of Russian election interference.

In such as scenario, President Trump has only two options. And they are both bad. Fire Mueller which would push the GOP to break with Trump. Or ride it out and hope Mueller takes enough time so that Trump can try and lead the Republic.

The GOP wants bad option two. They need his pen to sign repeal/replace Obamacare and enact tax reform. That is why they are advising Trump to not fire Mueller. 

Option 2 would take months and years. Option 1 would be immediate. Such is the calculus of today. As the midterms become closer and if GOP legislation gets bogged down, neither option is of use. With Trump now having 75% support from Republican voters - down from 90% - time isn't on Trump's side.


I Don't Know What To Call It

by John Jazwiec

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6XSxv-E2Rk

Trump's first cabinet meeting. CNN lampooned it by referring to it as North Korea-like.

MSNBC's Morning Joe spent the first part of the show with Joe surrounded by people false praising him.

Besides everyone praising Trump in a scripted manner, Trump got off his own good one at the cabinet meeting. Trump - "besides FDR I have gotten the most done this early in my presidency".  

No analysis. No opinion. I am at a loss for words to describe his first cabinet meeting. I don't know what to call Trump. 

But I will be damned if I am forced to call him Dear Leader.


Trump's Real "Stock" Market

by John Jazwiec

Screen Shot 2017-06-12 at 5.48.39 PM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

The reader can play along by refreshing the link above every day. 

If you view this chart like the stock market - or as Trump's real "stock" market - one can ascertain certain "technicals". 

The first is, people who have no opinion has decreased from 10% to 5%.

Second, the high/low gap has widened since Trump's inauguration.  

Third, the latest high/low of his "stock" market, is what is known as a technical support level. It was tested before in March at 59%/36%. It is now being tested again at 59%/36%.

I wouldn't expect to see Trump's high/lows rise/fall below these technical levels. But if they fall, more than 3% - which is the margin or error - to the low 30's, than the President goes from a "recession" to a "depression". 

Either way, you can forget all the headlines, and simply pay attention to the numbers that Trump and the GOP are paying attention to and the latter have to pay attention to.


Trump's Math Could Make Complete Sense

by John Jazwiec

Trump's math makes sense, if you believe an unknowable - he did something wrong with Russia - and that Trump is getting the best political advice from Steve Bannon. And Trump can stay on message. 

The Washington Post is reporting that 6 out 10 Americans don't support Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. Big whoop. Trump has locked in 36 to 40% of voters. The number never goes below that range. Maybe it will. But it hasn't since Gallup has been taking daily fav/unfavorable polls. 

Trump's biggest challenge - given Comey's testimony this week and Mueller as special prosector - is a political problem, not a legal one. His downside maybe a potential impeachment. And that requires keen political calculus. 

About 30% of American voters are Republican, 30% are Democrat and 40% are independent. Trump has almost a 90% approval rating among Republican voters. That means he must have at least another 10% support amongst independents. But his 90% approval rating with Republicans, means he has already set the direction for the party, not the other way around. 

So, as I write today, very few Republican House and Senate members can go against Trump given his Republican support. So impeachment isn't very likely to be considered until after the 2018 mid-term elections. Although the Democrats did take back the House in the 2006 mid-term, mid-term elections are made up of mostly Republican voters. Given a lack of a Democratic "bench" and more-so gerrymandering, it is more likely than not, the Republicans will retain the House. Since any impeachment must start in the House, that means Trump probably is safe until 2020. 

So, while the reader might not like what Trump is doing, and in fact is aghast at what he is saying, Trump's math is more solid than his temperament. If I am right, which of course is a big if, the only person that could upset Trump's math is Trump himself.


Trump - Your Comments After London Are A National Embarrassment

by John Jazwiec

First of all, I want to express my sympathies to the victims of the London attack last night. 

And I want to apologize for our President. I consider him to be a national embarrassment. Far to many Americans feel the same.

Trump first tweeted this

“We need the courts to give us back our rights. We need the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety!”

It was not only inappropriate, but it was a dumb non sequitur. The London attack's named perp, Khalid Masood, was a citizen not an immigrant. Same for the Manchester attack and most attacks of recent vintage.

Then he tweeted this - 

“At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!'”

Trump took the mayor's message out of context. The mayor of London was talking about not being alarmed by the presence of law enforcement. 

Finally he tweeted this - 

“Do you notice we are not having a gun debate right now? That’s because they used knives and a truck!

Trump using the attack to support his US - not GB - national agenda of gun ownership rights?

I am sorry London. Trump is a national embarrassment. And we can't tell you when it will end.


Warning To Democrats - Obama Was A Black Swan And More

by John Jazwiec

As to story goes, Barack Obama became our first African American president. But that's not the real story. 

The real story is that Barack Obama was the first Democratic president elected - and twice for good measure - who wasn't from the South since LBJ lost the South.

A little electoral history lesson. Since the Civil War the Democratic Party owned the South and the GOP owned the North. FDR's four elections were huge electoral landslides. You need 270 to win. FDR carried 472 to 432 from 1932 to 1944. What about that close election in 1948 between Truman and Dewey? Because of Strom Thurmond carrying some of the South, Truman won with 303 electoral votes. Eisenhower beat Stevenson twice in 1952 and 1956 with 442/457 respectively. What about the close election of 1960? Kennedy most carried the South - cheated in TX and IL - and won with 303 electoral votes.

Then LBJ - based upon passing a civil rights law - lost the South in 1964. But he won in a landslide with 486 votes. What about the close 1968 election? George Wallace ran as a southern independent and carried the South. Nixon won with 301 electoral votes. In 1972 - with Watergate in its infancy and with no third party candidate - Nixon carried every state but Massachusetts and won with 520 electoral votes.

Carter beat Ford and carried the entire South. He won with 297 electoral votes. Reagan won in 1980 and 1984 with 489 and 525 electoral votes respectively. Bush 43 won with 486 electoral votes in 1988. In 1992 Clinton carried about 1/2 of the South and won with 370 electoral votes (Perot got zero electoral votes). He won again in 1996 with 379 votes in roughly a similar manner (Perot got zero electoral votes). Bush 44 beat a southern Gore by carrying the entire South. That's how bad a candidate Gore was. Then Bush beat a northern Kerry with similar results. 

Which brings us back to Obama. Without the South, but winning GOP-leaning states like FL, NC, and IN, Obama won the 2008 election with 365 electoral votes. He won again in 2012 - losing NC and IN - and won with 332 electoral votes. 

In other words, Obama was a black swan. And the Democratic party would be wise to remember that. The US was and is by default a GOP president electoral winner. Unless you are from the South or have the unique skills of Obama. The DNC isn't going to find another Obama. Period. But they can nominate a Southern Democrat and have some kind of chance. 

Here is another warning. The open real estate from a Trump-led GOP is the intellectual center-right. If the Democrats lurch to the left in a huge reactionary manner - which is highly likely - they will miss an opportunity to capture the intellectual center-right and lose most congressional and presidential races. 


A Possible Link Between Obama, Trump And Russia

by John Jazwiec

Trump's velocity and the free press keeping up, seem to always make yesterday's news vanish. 

Yahoo News is reporting - which is why I am saying possible - that the incoming Trump administration wanted to repeal US sanctions against Russia.

Let's remember why Obama put sanctions on Russia in the first place. It was in response to the Ukrainian incursion and the annexation of Crimea. Rightwing reactionaries decried the move as "feckless" and weak. That is debatable. But what is not debatable, is that Russia - despite today's hyperbole - is a country that has a weak economy based on fossil fuels who's prices have collapsed over the last four years.

Some of that is due to America's stepped up production of fossil fuels (the Paris climate accord just sets targets, is not binding and allows each country to set their own target). But a lot of that is based on the burgeoning alternative energy market (that isn't going to change by the US pulling out of the Paris accord despite the hyperbole of the mainstream press).

Why? Because there is world wide demand for alternative energy. And alternative energy is good for national security. Alternative energy allows the US to disengage from the Middle East and hurts dictatorships and kleptocracies.

So the Obama administration's economic sanctions against Russia, had and have, a deep impact against Russia and they are an existential threat to the status quo of Russia's kleptocracy. HRC would have continued the Obama's policy. 

Less remembered though, was Russian actions during the run up to the US general election in 2016 (just google "Russia preparing for nuclear war"). They were preparing for a nuclear war. Why? Because the ramifications of the US continuing to apply economic sanctions against Russia was, and remains, a real threat to topple Russia's house of cards. 

But Russia could have - with an emphasis on "could" - had an asymmetrical plan to collude with the Trump campaign with a quid pro quo of lifting economic sanctions against their country. 

That is potentially the possible missing link between Obama, Trump and Russia.

And although all of this is speculative, it does provide for a compelling narrative of the mystery surrounding the Trump administration from its inauguration, through the need for a Russian congressional investigation and special prosector, through Trump's actions in Europe with Nato, and yesterday's action to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. 


The State Of Trump And This Blog

by John Jazwiec

The drip-drip-drip of the Trump presidency is impossible to keep up with. So, I really don't know what value I can add. Except to put all of it into the context for America.

Besides Trump's boorish behavior that he showed in the campaign, my largest concern of Trump becoming president, was his the man himself.

I saw a 70-year old man who's only constituent was himself. Yes, he dealt with other people. But the people he dealt with were to serve his own aims and then he would discard them. I knew he must have charmed people and those same people must have been shocked when he mistreated them later.

His behavior and decisions, since his inauguration, has if anything, been worse than I could imagine.

Take the climate change treaty. Here's the thing. I don't know if climate change is real or not. But I do know that alternative energy production IS the greatest potential job creator in a 21st century for America. Either Trump doesn't get the economic impacts of what he says  - like NAFTA - or he is just pandering to his base. A base who thinks Trump is bringing coal mining jobs back. And with worse health care benefits.

America isn't "great" just because we have the most wealth or the biggest military in the world. It's because we stand as a shining light to the rest of the world based on our ideals. Cozying up to Saudi Arabia and blasting Europe would make the great Ronald Reagan turn in his grave. 

I don't know if Trump is in legal jeopardy. I do know that he jeopardizes the Republican party, the people who voted for him and America. I really don't know what to hope for: his presidency being undermined to the most extreme detriment our constitution provides or to the will of voters in 2018 and 2020. 

Either way, I can't write continuously on the state of Trump. All I can say, is that his campaign and presidency are a threat to this country. And watch and see how this all unfolds with the rest of you. If there becomes something that I think is worth writing about, that is a game changer, I will publish my thoughts.

In the meantime, I am doing what most Americans are doing. Keeping my head down, doing my job and reading the headlines every night like everyone else. 


Memorial Day Wishes - The Past, Current And Future

by John Jazwiec

I think one of the most moving songs about America's sacrifices for something greater than themselves, is American Anthem by Norah Jones. Perhaps you could spend the next five minutes listening to the song and the images.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B81kW814qA

The chorus is perhaps the single best poem that encapsulates my personal gratitude to the past, current and future members of our military on Memorial Day. They are white and black. They are men and women. And they are immigrants

Let them say of me
I was one who believed
In sharing the blessings
I received
Let me know in my heart
When my days are through
America
America
I gave my best to you

It also reminds me that we seem to have escaped our past values.

The concentration of wealth is perhaps the best launching point. But stories of the divides how to solve it - are immense to the detriment of civility of the nation - and political promises to the least fortunate are being dissolved in front of us.

As someone, who has given most of my money to charity and my family, while never wanting much for myself; the idea that the nation is considering massive tax cuts to the wealthy, cost cuts to the poor and damning 23 million Americans to pick between death or more poverty, goes against everything I believe in and what are nation was built on.

There can be no headstones that celebrate how selfish and bigoted some people are. Only headstones for the brave men and women who have served to protect this nation. And bodies buried for people who financially and socially believed that "I was one who believed in sharing the blessings I received".

So my Memorial Day wish is to remember our past, reflect on what is current, and resolve to live up to the ideals of our American Anthem in the future.


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From athletic scholar and satirist to computer programmer to CEO success, John Jazwiec brings a unique and often eccentric perspective to business and supply chain challenges. Exploring how they can be solved through the leadership and communication insights found in untraditional sources. This CEO blog demonstrates how business insights from books on history to the music of Linkin Park can help challenge and redefine “successful leadership.” Read Jazwiec’s Profile >>

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