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Trump's Strategy

by John Jazwiec

Trump has a strategy. I am not sure it is a winning one. But he does have one.

First of all, behind the backdrop of the events of Charlottesville, we know Mueller has Trump's tax returns. If we know it, Trump knows it. That puts a fighter like Trump, in a position of conducting a scorched earth policy.

Step 1. Sow the seeds of insurrection. Trump maybe a racist. But he knows that he has a powerful ally in militant whites capable of spreading armed chaos throughout the nation. 

Step 2. Put the GOP on the spot. Tweeting against GOP politicians is a divide and conquer strategy. What about his legislative "agenda"? Trump doesn't have a legislative agenda. Trump's "agenda" is Trump staying in office.

Step 3. Voting commission. Too much written space has been dedicated to voter suppression. What Trump really wants is to delay and/or "temporarily" suspend the 2020 election.

Step 4. If there is wide-spread insurrection and his voting commission concludes there was election fraud, Trump will seek the power to declare a state of emergency. No elections. Marshal law. Citizen surveillance that would make the Patriot Act blush. He will say the "alt-left" is infiltrated by terrorists and seek the power to identify his enemies and persecute them. 

Step 5. The most risky strategy of them all. Pick a large enough war to wag the dog. 

Mueller has Trump's tax returns. They may show illegalities. They may only show embarrassing details. But steps 1 through 5, would render Mueller's work inconsequential. Trump is betting on people rallying to the flag in times of crisis and supporting the commander-in-chief, regardless of his "relative peccadilloes".

Anyways - whether it works of not - that's Trump's strategy as far as I can decipher. 

Why Defcon 4 And Not 1 Yet

by John Jazwiec

I am advocating censure as a response to Trump. Just like the military term, it sends a signal, very short of war. 

To those advocating the removal of Trump - Defcon 1 - I think it is important to recognize why there needs to be a suitable amount of time before taking any action against Trump's presidency. 

Trump's base maybe eroding. But the militant white stands ready to defend him. 

Defcon 1, right now, would trigger riots and death short of a civil war. The 60% of people that don't support Trump are less likely to be armed, than the fraction of the 36% that support him.

So it is imperative that Trump is warned in stronger terms than before, so hopefully he gets the message. 

That of course is not likely to change Trump. In that case, Washington needs to (a) gain the broad consensus of every American that is not a radical that Trump is harming this country, (b) methodically prepare and pass legislation to ban the hate groups who are going to be descending in every city and (c) carefully prepares a serious counter-insurgency to defend the vast majority of its citizens.

To quote Churchill, "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning".

GOP - Time For Defcon 4

by John Jazwiec

I am getting tired of members of the Republican party saying they are disappointed in Trump.

The real Donald Trump came out today. Both as not having the credibility as the moral leader of the country and lacking the temperament required of the highest office in this country.

There are millions of Americans that are upset and scared for their safety tonight.

Trump threatens the very existence of the GOP.

So it's time. Not impeachment. But Defcon 4.

House and Senate leadership need to introduce and vote for censure. That's the proper response for the GOP and for all Americans now.

Trump - It's All About All The People

by John Jazwiec

Trump is only interested in his base and twitter.

So it is ironic and poignant, that Obama's tweet, is the second most liked tweet ever. The first was by Ariana Grande responding to the Manchester terror attack.

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Obama and George W. Bush were presidents for all people. Trump's just isn't.

Obama's picture is genuine Obama. Even his detractors would agree with that. Ask yourself this: can you picture Trump in this picture instead of Obama?

And the white haters didn't march talking about Robert E. Lee. They were there to spew their ugly and radical views as an end to its own. 

Charlottesville - My Non Politically Correct Comments

by John Jazwiec

The GOP Is The Party Of Lincoln. I know it is heresy to say this, but Lincoln wasn't a great president. He may have been a great writer, but that's about it. Lincoln couldn't prosecute a quick and successful war  - it took four years - even though the North had a superior advantage. He fired Generals too many times (compare that to FDR who plucked Eisenhower from obscurity and stuck with him). He even hired and fired George Meade twice. He threatened to lock up the Supreme Court and suspended habeas corpus. The "Great Emancipator" first wanted to ship African American slaves back to Africa or an island. It took him two years to sign the Emancipation Proclamation, which only affected Southern slaves, for the wartime reason of starting an insurrection. Finally, he only won reelection, after Sherman - god knows what Grant was doing in the trenches around Petersburg for over a year - won the battle of Atlanta. Lincoln might have been poised to become a better president in his second term starting with the 13th Amendment. But comparing Trump to the "high ideals" of Lincoln? Sorry. I don't get it. 

Every Confederate monument under seize? This nation was forged out of its civil war. It is our shared history. Taking down a General Lee monument? It shouldn't have lead to armed crazy whites and domestic terrorism! But General Lee? Lee fought in the Mexican American War. Lee was Lincoln's first choice to become the General Of The Potomac. Lee didn't believe in slavery. Lee wanted to free the slaves at the beginning of the war. In a Gallup poll, Lee was voted the 8th best general in American history. Are we just going to have Yankee monuments of winning battles like Gettysburg? We can't have Southern monuments of winning Southern battles like Chickamauga? Monuments mark history. To deny history is wrong. 99% of Americans are smart enough to separate 19th century historical markers from 21st century normalcy. 

Supporting free speech and assembly but ... I didn't and don't have a problem with crazy people assembling and talking nonsense. Best to leave them alone in their fringe world. But I don't support free speech and assembly when groups are carrying guns and automatic rifles. I don't support inciting domestic terrorism. Were local and state officials caught off guard that militant white guys would be packing? They plan their next protest on 9/11 in Texas. Let's hope law enforcement is ready for an armed and dangerous bunch of white men. Like having checkpoints for protesters and non-protesters - in and out of a defined space - with metal detectors and shakedowns. 

White Christians and people of the Jewish faith. "White Nationalism" differs from "White Supremacy" in that the latter believed non-whites and Jews were inferior, while the former believes they should be expunged from American soil. Of course it is a semantical rebranding. All of this Christian nonsense is idiotic. The four Gospels or "good news" - not history but symbolism - were rooted in Judaism and Roman terrorism. It is critically important to understand the Gospel writers were Jews. Jesus dying on the cross took meaning, because the Jewish scriptures were full of persecution and execution. In Mark, the first Gospel - which was written just after the first Jewish revolt and the destruction of the Temple - Jesus is mocked and dies crying out "why have you forsaken me". That is what the Jews were feeling at that time. In Matthew, the second Gospel written 15 years after Mark, the war is a more distant memory. Jewish priesthood has ended. Now there is a debate about the rabbinical movement and the holiness of the Torah. In Matthew, Jesus goes up to the mount and comes back with the same books as Moses did, which were the basis of the Torah. In Luke, the third Gospel, Luke is mainly concerned with Jewish collaboration with Rome, like the Jewish historian Josephus. In John, amongst vying sects of Judaism, John tells a story of a Jewish sect, that is losing power. The New Testament - right or wrong - sees itself as an extension of Judaism. That's why it takes great pains to start with an Old Testament and uses Judaism sayings in the New Testament. "Christianity" is as much a story of post Roman Judaism, as is "Diaspora Judaism". In other words, being anti-semitic, is a farce. "Christians" are really only a Judaic sect. For radicals to deny they are of Jewish origin, is as uneducated, as the members themselves. 

Trump's Real Stock Market V - Why He Finally Came Out Against Bigotry

by John Jazwiec

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I have been talking about Trump's favorable/unfavorable "stock market" for sometime. 

His unfavorable ceiling of 60% and more importantly his consistent favorable floor of 36% have been "trading within narrow bands". 

Gallup polls on a three-day rolling average. 

Trump - who is more concerned with polling then you and I - can see he broke his favorable floor of 36% down to 34%.

His "base" I promise you, isn't homogeneous. There is racism still in this country. But a great deal of Trump's voters, and I heard it all weekend from them, were disgusted with the Unite Right rally. And what really broke "their back" was Trump not acknowledging that there was an act of domestic terrorism. 

Hence today, Trump, after more than 48 hours, denounced the bigotry of white supremacists. 

Again, I don't think Trump is a bigot. But I do think Trump, thinks he is his most important constituency. 

So the cards were on the table. The polling numbers were in. And Trump's only conclusion was he needed to say something more forceful. Not because of a sense of moral outrage. But rather a stronger sense of political survivalism. 

Because 61/34% - in the first six months of a presidency - his not only unprecedented, but it isn't sustainable. Even if you are spending money on 2020 campaign adds, while Rome is burning.

The Presidency Is The Comforter In Chief

by John Jazwiec

Fifthteen times Barack Obama mourned with the families of the 15 terrorist attacks during his presidency.

Who can forget him tearing up, after Sandy Hook, saying "when I think of those kids". Those families were mostly Republicans. Obama understood that terrorism crosses party lines.

Each of his 15 visits with the families of the victims was emotional draining. But he understood that was a part of the job.

One by one on Thursday, inside an arena in downtown Orlando where friends and relatives of the victims of the nation’s deadliest mass shooting had congregated, Mr. Obama embraced mourners sick with loss. He told them that the nation stood with them and that his own heart was broken, offering words of comfort for a tragedy that he confessed he could not fathom.

“Their grief is beyond description,” Mr. Obama said after a two-hour meeting with the mourners. “Through their pain and through their tears, they told us about the joy that their loved ones had brought to their lives.”

Behind closed doors, Mr. Obama told the grieving that it was the 15th time during his seven-and-a-half-year tenure that he had had to offer these sorts of condolences after a shooting, according to those who attended.

“There were times when he choked up,” said Angelica Jones, a performer at the Pulse nightclub, where a gunman killed 49 people and wounded 53 on Sunday. “And it’s a hard thing to do when you’ve got mothers crying out. He was up to it.”

He grasps for words of sympathy, comfort and condolence and offers long, tight embraces that the mourners will remember far more vividly than his words.

I don't believe Trump ever thought to call the family of Heather Heyer, less go visit the family. He certainly didn't acknowledge her death from the podium. 

Obama wasn't the only president who has played comforter in chief. His predecessors all did it too. 

Trump didn't only fail to communicate a clear moral statement this weekend. He instead treated it like a nuisance. That's not presidential by any measure of past presidents.

"Unite The Right"?

by John Jazwiec

The tragedy of this weekend's Charlotteville "Unite The Right" rally - from predicted and then actual injuries and fatalities - is all the more upsetting, because it's so devoid of history and so pathetically individualistic.

The rally should have been called "Unite The White Fringe" or I am turning in my white card. 

Groups of White Nationalists, Neo-Nazis, the KKK and the Alt-Right, chanting this country's soil belongs only to white people, and not non-whites and Jews, and hurtling racial epithets at both, ignores this county's history and our long-term arc. 

Our grandfathers fought a war against Germany precisely because they abhorred nationalism/fascism and genetic disposition and persecution. 

I am sure these want-to-be-Denny's workers watched Band of Brothers. Saving Private Ryan. And all the films about the war against Germany's Nazi regime. They couldn't find empathy with those soldiers and their mission? It's not like I am asking them to read all 1400 pages of the "Rise and Fall Of The Third Reich". 

Also, are you telling me, that these white fringes, have never seen a Holocaust movie? They didn't see the Diary of Anne Frank? Didn't see Schindler's List? Didn't see the Pianist? Didn't catch the Zookeeper's Wife? Jeez, I am not asking them to read Elie Wiesel’s "Night".

Are you telling me that these people have never seen movies of African American struggles? They didn't watch Roots? They didn't watch Mississippi Burning? They didn't watch Tuskegee Airmen or Something The Lord Made? It's not like I am asking them to read "Life Upon The Shores 1513 - 2008" by Harvard's Henry Louis Gates.

But a lack of empathy, is probably not the only reason, these people traveled to Virginia, when normal people are enjoying their weekend and chilling. 

Unite The Right and its collection of deplorables, are really more motivated by a pathetic sense of individualist need. Specifically, how can they merry their declining economic and social status with some cause other than themselves.

"Unite the White"? You are not going to win. You can't move time backwards. You can't change the economic darwinism that has made this country the greatest economic powerhouse in history. You might have someone in the WH - who for political expediency gives a crap about you (I don't believe he cares about you, nor does he care about anyone else but him, and he is not motivated by bigotry). But you are living on borrowed time.

You took the fight to Virginia. Ole Virginia. But you lost. Go home. Get a job. Or get a skill or an education. In the meantime, just go back to your chatrooms and stay out of our cities. Our lives matter.

Why Would North Korea Test Missiles Against The Waters Around Guam?

by John Jazwiec

There is a method to the madness of Kim's madness.

And it isn't being reported correctly. 

Kim's is asking for plans to "launch 4 conventional missiles against the waters around Guam". Why?

Certainly, it could be argued that, that Kim is just reacted to Trump and doesn't want to lose face.

But I think he is "thinking" of gaming out his defense against an American attack. Namely an artillery/missile attack on South Korea. "Thinking" - asking for plans - also allows him to game the diplomatic process.

He's picking Guam because the 4 missiles would have to travel over Japan, which has deployed and has ready, the US PAC-3 Patriot Missile Defense System. 

By sending 4 missiles over Japan, Kim would be stress testing one of the US's Missile Defense Systems. Not reported - but logical - Japan, in the absence of South Korea, could try to shoot down the 4 missiles.

What if Japan doesn't? Then Kim knows that Japan and the US are not acting in concert or at worst gets to see how other missile defense systems (like on ships patrolling and sites unknown) work/don't work. What if Japan's missile defense system doesn't work? Then Kim would not feel he has to worry about South Korea's defenses. What if Japan's missile defense works? That's good intelligence and the only thing that happens is that 4 missiles didn't fall into the waters off of Guam. Which they likely believe, wouldn't illicit a US response. 

It's madness for sure. But there is some method to it.

A Story Now Better Told

by John Jazwiec

But then General Kelly - according to reports - "helped" to end Scaramucci ten-day role at the WH this afternoon.

Only two explanations can account from all of these knee-jerk behavior/decisions. Either Trump is playing some kind of three-dimensional chess, OR the Military/GOP has taken some, or a lot of, Trump's keys away. 

I hope I am wrong. But July - from my notes - seemed to have been bookends to a story not yet told. - July 31st.

Time Magazine has a new cover story out that reports on General Kelly's decision to become Trump's chief of staff.

First, Kelly was asked by Trump to be his chief of staff twice and turned down both offers. 

Second, Kelly, after being influenced by Mattis, McMaster, and Dunford - fellow military associates - was convinced to take the job as a duty to country, in the midst of an emerging dangerous North Korean crisis, in which they all agree Trump can't be completely trusted due to his temperament and lack of knowledge of foreign affairs.

Third, Kelly told the WH staff - all three hundred - that their duty was to country, the president and the American people. In that order. All things that are supposed to be implied in their role as members of the executive branch, but were not necessarily how they were acting. 

This has now gone from a story not yet told, to a story better told. The military hasn't taken away Trump's keys. But they are acutely aware that this president must be better managed. And it is hard to see, how they would allow Trump - beyond rhetoric - to make any North Korean military action unilaterally. 

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From athletic scholar and satirist to computer programmer to CEO success, John Jazwiec brings a unique and often eccentric perspective to business and supply chain challenges. Exploring how they can be solved through the leadership and communication insights found in untraditional sources. This CEO blog demonstrates how business insights from books on history to the music of Linkin Park can help challenge and redefine “successful leadership.” Read Jazwiec’s Profile >>

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