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The Best Way For The GOP To Kill Obamacare

by John Jazwiec

Hint: It isn't to vote for the Senate plan. McConnell is giving GOP senator's their out. They can't vote for it because they are being rushed. 

No, the best way to kill Obamacare for Republicans - to save them from the voters and keep their jobs - is to continue to keep Obamacare paralyzed. 

Healthcare companies have to plan for the future. By definition they are in the business of risk management. So with Obamacare under assault, they have been and will be leaving state's healthcare markets and/or raising premiums.

Under such weight - a government plan is only as good as it claims to be (see US Treasury Bills) - Obamacare will naturally become unpalatable to voters.

Then the GOP can tell voters that the problem with their healthcare is the Democrat's fault. That's the best way for the GOP to kill Obamacare. 


Obama's Caution?

by John Jazwiec

It is tempting for anti-Obama enemies to gloat over his caution in handling the Russian voting crisis as reported in the Washington Post. Add Trump to the list. See his tweets slamming the ex-President. Our dear leader, is intimating that Russian election meddling - and Obama's caution - was to help Hillary Clinton?

It is fair for people to see Obama as too-careful. But his carefulness - not wanting to put his thumb down on the scale - is the way two-term presidential lame ducks have long handled the general election limbo.

For example, JFK - a Northern Democrat when the South was Democratic (the only Northern Democrat to win the presidency in the modern era until Obama, but had to cheat and only eked out a win, when Obama won handily - twice) blatantly lied about a missile gap. Eisenhower didn't refute it, because he didn't want to interfere in the 1960 election.  

Bush 43 also kept his mouth shut during the 2008 election as to not interfere.

Obama's handling of the Russian election crisis may also have come from an abundant of caution. From August until early October he had to make sure the intelligence was right. He also labored on its impact, on a heavily contested election, where Trump had already called the election "rigged". 

What is striking about Obama's approach to problems is his tendency to foster debate and take more time to make decisions. Fostering debate means people maintain the strength of their different convictions after the debate has come to an end. Nonetheless, I for one, appreciated a president who took his time and didn't shoot too quickly.

Which is in stark contrast to our current president who studies nothing and tweets events with no due diligence.

I guess it all comes down to where you land. I might like slow and steady two-hands on the wheel Obama. The reader might like a bull in a china shop presumably to make changes for a greater good. But for what good?

Like Obama or not - the right and the left both see him as flawed in retrospect - but I understood his politics, his subsequent actions and his integrity in office.

But who understands the bull in a china shop's politics? We have no legislation to mark his actions. And there is no integrity in the presidential office again. 

Obama's caution - rooted in intellectual process and integrity to a fault - shouldn't be a story of a flawed president. Rather it should be a stark contrast with a new president with no intellectual process and questionable integrity.


Why The GOP's ACA Wasn't Planned To Pass

by John Jazwiec

Forget all of the news regarding the Senate presenting "their" ACA (repeal/replace) to a vote. It's simply a waste of time.

Mitch McConnell "secretly" drafted the bill. Everyone's hair was on fire. Democrats and Republicans. McConnell is a lot of things, but one is not being strategic. McConnell plays a long game.

It isn't a slam dunk in the Senate. But I do expect it to pass. Why? Because McConnell's strategy - one that helps the GOP party - requires it.

This Senate bill has to go back to the House. The House couldn't have passed its own "Rose Garden" version, without making their bill satisfy the Freedom Caucus. 

The Senate's version is far too moderate to pass the House.

This all sets up as a strategy to satisfy GOP voter's demands to repeal ObamaCare, while knowing any such legislation - if passed- will backfire as it helps the wealthy and takes away benefits from the non-wealthy. 

GOP House members will blame the GOP Senate. The GOP Senate will blame the GOP House. 

"We heard you loud and clear that you wanted us to repeal ObamaCare. We worked hard to make that happen. But the House and Senate couldn't make it happen, because of the procedural dynamics". 

Is this a perfect strategy for the GOP? No. Is there a perfect strategy for the GOP? No. Is McConnell's strategy right? Yes. It is simply the best option, of bad options, to help the GOP.


Trump's Real "Stock" Market II

by John Jazwiec

Screen Shot 2017-06-21 at 10.07.41 AM

Trump's real "stock" market support levels are 59%/36% unfavorable/favorable. 

As the reader can see, those support levels have been tested for a week and as I expected the support levels have held. 

Which means Trump is in a recession but nowhere near a depression. His strategy of playing to his base seems to be the right strategy to hold on to office.


Mueller Probable End Game

by John Jazwiec

Before Trump took office, the entire US intelligence community concluded that Russia interfered in the election. 

Of course, ostensively, Mueller is looking for collusion and obstruction of justice. But that isn't likely his end game. 

Donald Trump's financial dealing are a complex set of deals with foreign entities. They are done with LLCs. There is a rather high probability that some have been done with citizens of Russia.

Specifically, Russian oligarchs are well known to park their money into US real estate in NY and Miami. It works like this. Through LLCs they buy expensive condos at premium prices. These premium prices can be thought of as loans.

It is questionable ethics for Trump as a private citizen. But for President Trump - given Russia interference in the election - such financial transactions are highly problematic.

In a less reported, but nonetheless significant move, Trump courted the US Attorney with jurisdiction in NY city. Trump's courting him got Trump nowhere and he fired the US Attorney. 

The press has widely reported Trump's questionable financial transactions, but they have hit dead ends. But Mueller has the legal means to follow the money through the end. 

It maybe likely that this is what Trump is most concerned with. Not collusion or obstruction, but financial dealings - that might not be illegal as a private citizen - but very damaging as the president of the United States under the veil of Russian election interference.

In such as scenario, President Trump has only two options. And they are both bad. Fire Mueller which would push the GOP to break with Trump. Or ride it out and hope Mueller takes enough time so that Trump can try and lead the Republic.

The GOP wants bad option two. They need his pen to sign repeal/replace Obamacare and enact tax reform. That is why they are advising Trump to not fire Mueller. 

Option 2 would take months and years. Option 1 would be immediate. Such is the calculus of today. As the midterms become closer and if GOP legislation gets bogged down, neither option is of use. With Trump now having 75% support from Republican voters - down from 90% - time isn't on Trump's side.


I Don't Know What To Call It

by John Jazwiec

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6XSxv-E2Rk

Trump's first cabinet meeting. CNN lampooned it by referring to it as North Korea-like.

MSNBC's Morning Joe spent the first part of the show with Joe surrounded by people false praising him.

Besides everyone praising Trump in a scripted manner, Trump got off his own good one at the cabinet meeting. Trump - "besides FDR I have gotten the most done this early in my presidency".  

No analysis. No opinion. I am at a loss for words to describe his first cabinet meeting. I don't know what to call Trump. 

But I will be damned if I am forced to call him Dear Leader.


Trump's Real "Stock" Market

by John Jazwiec

Screen Shot 2017-06-12 at 5.48.39 PM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

The reader can play along by refreshing the link above every day. 

If you view this chart like the stock market - or as Trump's real "stock" market - one can ascertain certain "technicals". 

The first is, people who have no opinion has decreased from 10% to 5%.

Second, the high/low gap has widened since Trump's inauguration.  

Third, the latest high/low of his "stock" market, is what is known as a technical support level. It was tested before in March at 59%/36%. It is now being tested again at 59%/36%.

I wouldn't expect to see Trump's high/lows rise/fall below these technical levels. But if they fall, more than 3% - which is the margin or error - to the low 30's, than the President goes from a "recession" to a "depression". 

Either way, you can forget all the headlines, and simply pay attention to the numbers that Trump and the GOP are paying attention to and the latter have to pay attention to.


Trump's Math Could Make Complete Sense

by John Jazwiec

Trump's math makes sense, if you believe an unknowable - he did something wrong with Russia - and that Trump is getting the best political advice from Steve Bannon. And Trump can stay on message. 

The Washington Post is reporting that 6 out 10 Americans don't support Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. Big whoop. Trump has locked in 36 to 40% of voters. The number never goes below that range. Maybe it will. But it hasn't since Gallup has been taking daily fav/unfavorable polls. 

Trump's biggest challenge - given Comey's testimony this week and Mueller as special prosector - is a political problem, not a legal one. His downside maybe a potential impeachment. And that requires keen political calculus. 

About 30% of American voters are Republican, 30% are Democrat and 40% are independent. Trump has almost a 90% approval rating among Republican voters. That means he must have at least another 10% support amongst independents. But his 90% approval rating with Republicans, means he has already set the direction for the party, not the other way around. 

So, as I write today, very few Republican House and Senate members can go against Trump given his Republican support. So impeachment isn't very likely to be considered until after the 2018 mid-term elections. Although the Democrats did take back the House in the 2006 mid-term, mid-term elections are made up of mostly Republican voters. Given a lack of a Democratic "bench" and more-so gerrymandering, it is more likely than not, the Republicans will retain the House. Since any impeachment must start in the House, that means Trump probably is safe until 2020. 

So, while the reader might not like what Trump is doing, and in fact is aghast at what he is saying, Trump's math is more solid than his temperament. If I am right, which of course is a big if, the only person that could upset Trump's math is Trump himself.


Trump - Your Comments After London Are A National Embarrassment

by John Jazwiec

First of all, I want to express my sympathies to the victims of the London attack last night. 

And I want to apologize for our President. I consider him to be a national embarrassment. Far to many Americans feel the same.

Trump first tweeted this

“We need the courts to give us back our rights. We need the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety!”

It was not only inappropriate, but it was a dumb non sequitur. The London attack's named perp, Khalid Masood, was a citizen not an immigrant. Same for the Manchester attack and most attacks of recent vintage.

Then he tweeted this - 

“At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!'”

Trump took the mayor's message out of context. The mayor of London was talking about not being alarmed by the presence of law enforcement. 

Finally he tweeted this - 

“Do you notice we are not having a gun debate right now? That’s because they used knives and a truck!

Trump using the attack to support his US - not GB - national agenda of gun ownership rights?

I am sorry London. Trump is a national embarrassment. And we can't tell you when it will end.


Warning To Democrats - Obama Was A Black Swan And More

by John Jazwiec

As to story goes, Barack Obama became our first African American president. But that's not the real story. 

The real story is that Barack Obama was the first Democratic president elected - and twice for good measure - who wasn't from the South since LBJ lost the South.

A little electoral history lesson. Since the Civil War the Democratic Party owned the South and the GOP owned the North. FDR's four elections were huge electoral landslides. You need 270 to win. FDR carried 472 to 432 from 1932 to 1944. What about that close election in 1948 between Truman and Dewey? Because of Strom Thurmond carrying some of the South, Truman won with 303 electoral votes. Eisenhower beat Stevenson twice in 1952 and 1956 with 442/457 respectively. What about the close election of 1960? Kennedy most carried the South - cheated in TX and IL - and won with 303 electoral votes.

Then LBJ - based upon passing a civil rights law - lost the South in 1964. But he won in a landslide with 486 votes. What about the close 1968 election? George Wallace ran as a southern independent and carried the South. Nixon won with 301 electoral votes. In 1972 - with Watergate in its infancy and with no third party candidate - Nixon carried every state but Massachusetts and won with 520 electoral votes.

Carter beat Ford and carried the entire South. He won with 297 electoral votes. Reagan won in 1980 and 1984 with 489 and 525 electoral votes respectively. Bush 43 won with 486 electoral votes in 1988. In 1992 Clinton carried about 1/2 of the South and won with 370 electoral votes (Perot got zero electoral votes). He won again in 1996 with 379 votes in roughly a similar manner (Perot got zero electoral votes). Bush 44 beat a southern Gore by carrying the entire South. That's how bad a candidate Gore was. Then Bush beat a northern Kerry with similar results. 

Which brings us back to Obama. Without the South, but winning GOP-leaning states like FL, NC, and IN, Obama won the 2008 election with 365 electoral votes. He won again in 2012 - losing NC and IN - and won with 332 electoral votes. 

In other words, Obama was a black swan. And the Democratic party would be wise to remember that. The US was and is by default a GOP president electoral winner. Unless you are from the South or have the unique skills of Obama. The DNC isn't going to find another Obama. Period. But they can nominate a Southern Democrat and have some kind of chance. 

Here is another warning. The open real estate from a Trump-led GOP is the intellectual center-right. If the Democrats lurch to the left in a huge reactionary manner - which is highly likely - they will miss an opportunity to capture the intellectual center-right and lose most congressional and presidential races. 


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From athletic scholar and satirist to computer programmer to CEO success, John Jazwiec brings a unique and often eccentric perspective to business and supply chain challenges. Exploring how they can be solved through the leadership and communication insights found in untraditional sources. This CEO blog demonstrates how business insights from books on history to the music of Linkin Park can help challenge and redefine “successful leadership.” Read Jazwiec’s Profile >>

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