No, it's not Trump. Most people go on with their lives and don't read the news.
No, it's not demographics. Suburban Republicans are largely skewed toward the median age.
It's rather about pocket book issues and school systems.
Take this RINO turned independent. I pay about $20,000 in state income taxes. I pay about $35,000 in real estate taxes on two homes. My SALT (state and local taxes) = $55,000.
While SALT isn't eliminated, it is capped at $10,000. The new standard deduction for married couples in $24,000. Meaning SALT has effectively been eliminated.
$55,000 - $24,000 = a loss of $31,000 in itemized deductions. Assume my marginal tax bracket - to keep the math simple is 33% - I lose 33% of the $31,000 or a $10,000 TAX INCREASE.
Suburban voters like me - regardless of past party affiliation - are not going to cast GOP votes this fall.
Then there are the consequences:
Property values will be reduced because one-factor in determining what to pay for a house, is SALT deductions that come back to the tax payer in cash.
So states and local school boards are going to have to raise property tax rates to make up for the reduction in real estate values.
That will just lead to an ever-ending cycle of people moving/renting to avoid this vicious circle.
That will lower school funding and the children will suffer.
But it's not like many people are going to be able to move/rent in the short-term.
So, in their anger against the GOP TAX HIKE, they will vote against suburban GOP candidates this fall.
A simple, but a historically accurate mid-term poll action. Like when the Democrats passed tax hikes in 1993 and were killed in the 1994 mid-term elections.
May 27, 2018